3 tweets, 1 min read
Amid the ongoing debate & indecision in Lebanon over repaying the March bond, foreign funds have increased their holdings of the 2020 maturities by $255mn. You can read an analysis from December 2019.
A very very conservative estimate of FX outflows should all 2020s be repaid is now $1bn (up from $760mn two months ago).
Note, that this is a lower bound and very conservative estimate because :
- a) It includes only reporting funds (i.e excluding hedge funds, etc)
- b) Reporting dates are lagging
- c) Doesn’t capture most of the latest activity in January 2020
Still, even as a minimum, the share of foreign funds owning the short-end of the curve has risen dramatically (especially the June bond).
The Cost of the government inaction means more USD will now have to flow out when repayment is made.
So much for keeping it internal.
NERD Wael Atallah worked on the below Series by series visual representations of the Eurobonds.
If you are still undecided on defaulting this might help you out.
